It’s hard to believe that fall will officially begin on September 22. If looking at the calendar is not proof enough for you, we can look at the fact that the children are back in school, stores are selling Halloween supplies and the days are getting shorter.
There is one particular sign of autumn that still seems to be elusive. I’m talking about cooler temperatures. Except for a few spots in the middle of the country, most of the US is still dealing with high humidity and heat. It doesn’t look as if that is going to change anytime soon if you can believe the long-term forecast.
The months of May, June, and July experienced record warmth in most of the United States. Those months were actually the hottest on record!
The central plains began experiencing a little relief from the heat in the past few weeks, as did the Midwest and parts of the Gulf Coast. When you look at the image below, you can see that the August temperatures have started to cool down in the center of the country.
When you look at the latest forecast for September, October, and November it appears as if a change is coming. Those forecast models are showing above-average temperatures for the entire United States. The only states that are different are Georgia, Alabama, and Florida.
Much of the heat looks like it will be focused on Alaska but there will also be other hotspots in the four corners region in the southwest. The Northeast will also be warmer than usual.
As far as rain is concerned, the majority of the country will be close to average over the next few months. The exceptions to that rule are the Southwest, part of the Southeast and Alaska.
In November, Alaska should see heavier rains and Florida will likely get extra thunderstorms in the coming months. The Southwest will experience similar issues during September.
The Climate Prediction Center has also issued an El Niño watch. This means that there is a 60% chance for an El Niño to form and that chance increases as winter gets closer.
In the United States, El Niño typically does not have a serious effect on the overall weather patterns during the autumn months. In the winter, however, it can have a significant impact.
For those who love autumn weather and changing leaves, some disappointment may be on the way because summer is going to hang on a little longer.
You may want to keep the sweater in the drawer for a little while longer. Get out and enjoy the summer heat because like it or not, winter is coming sooner or later.